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There is no course in the world upon which he's more comfortable, and having ended with another frustrating performance over in Dubai, it's easy to see him coming out all guns blazing, reports from practice suggesting he's ready to do so. Still, this event has a habit of throwing up a minor surprise, something we saw in courtesy of Shane Lowry and again last year, when Lee Westwood held off Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez with some of the best golf of his wonderful career.
Both Lowry and Westwood are of course highly-decorated players, both with stacks of world-class form before winning here, but they were not especially prominent in markets dominated by McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka, all of whom have come up just short in the event.
In the past I've felt these players have often been caught just a little cold, McIlroy in particular, allowing Pablo Larrazazbal and Gary Stal and Robert Rock and Jamie Donaldson and Fleetwood himself to secure the biggest wins of their careers. It's not always been the case that champions have played deep into December or even in South Africa to start the year, but it is possible to conclude that the volatility brought about by absence in part explains some big-priced winners.
Then again, McIlroy could so easily be a four- or five-time champion and things would look altogether different. His European Tour form has been excellent and it's underpinned by approach play of the standard which made him a double major champion - in fact, he ended as the European Tour's leader in strokes-gained approach and that underlines his progress, having been 21st in Just as significantly, his putting is transformed 31st last season and he talks like a man who is confident on the greens again, which is a huge turnaround.
All of this helps explain a run of to begin , and four top finishes in seven European Tour starts once play resumed in the summer. Added to that is 14th place in the DP World Tour Championship last time, at a course where he's yet to contend. There can be no doubt that he's more suited to Abu Dhabi, where he's a three-time winner and could have won five, having been runner-up in and, infamously, thrown away what was briefly a shot lead in It is a course which is playable from the fairway but penal away from it and his accurate, second-shot game has proven ideal whether at his world number one peak, or ranked outside the top as was the case last year.
Now up to 80th, Kaymer could crack the world's top 50 with a win and that kind of leap has been something of a thread in the first big event of the year in Europe. In fact, five of the last 10 champions climbed either inside or right onto the fringes of the top 50, which represents the key to the majors and WGCs.
Kaymer, whose improved play was in part triggered by missing the Open in , is desperate to get back where he belongs. Nobody gets close to Kaymer's approach play figures at this course over the last two renewals and the German was the best player in the field from tee-to-green in One year on and with those missed opportunities at the Belfry and Valderrama showing how close he's been to winning again, this seems like the right time and the right place for the drought to come to an end.
When Fleetwood won here for the first time in , it came after he'd rediscovered his game at the back-end of , putting together a string of excellent results and going close in Hong Kong. He's not alone, with six of the last nine winners having ended the previous year with a top 10, and all of them having been in better form than earlier in the previous campaign.
All that suggests Victor Perez is a big player having built up an excellent record in the desert, including here, with Andy Sullivan, Matt Wallace and a handful of others in the same bracket of some interest. Rose clearly struggled in when switching to Honma clubs, despite winning at Torrey Pines, and that continued into Ultimately he decided that change was needed - both in terms of clubs, and by ending a lengthy and lucrative relationship with coach Sean Foley - and his game has shown only brief glimpses of promise since he and Foley parted ways last summer.
Inconsistency through the bag has been a feature and there's no guarantee he finds the fix this year, but the Olympics are on the horizon along with a Ryder Cup in the USA, and having turned 40 in July there'll be no lacking in motivation. The Olympics in particular must be on his mind given that he won gold in Rio five years ago, but earns no right to defend his title as he would expect to in any other major golf tournament. Moving his family back to the UK late last year though he retains a practice base in the Bahamas, where he's spent the last couple of weeks is possibly another small sign that Rose is looking to shake things up and get climbing the world rankings again, and like Sergio Garcia late last year and defending champion Westwood, he's classy enough to stop the bleeding.
Rose has been second, 12th and 22nd in three starts here, breaking par in 11 of his 12 rounds and generally hitting the ball brilliantly, which could be all the more important with wind forecast over the first two days. Last year's places were filled with quality ball-strikers and that's certainly the most obvious path here for all that Lowry and Larrazbal have dazzled with their short-games.
Crucially though, it's the fact he started to play better late in which gives me hope that he can defy a longer-than-ideal absence and discover a return to form. At the high-class Zozo Championship he shot three rounds of 67 for a share of 17th, he played well for three of the four rounds at Augusta to finish 23rd, and a missed cut at the RSM Classic is really not a concern given that he'd just played the Masters, and came up a single shot shy.
Don't forget, for all he hasn't been playing at the standards we've come to expect, since the PGA Tour returned last summer he's been third, ninth, 14th and 17th, and those kind of performances translate very nicely to this less competitive circuit - especially the ninth, which came in the US PGA. There's clearly a lot to be taken on trust here but I would much rather take a chance on Rose's class than hope to land on the right one of those around him, most of whom still have to prove they're up to winning a Rolex Series title like this one.
Rose disappointed a little in the last Rolex Series event he played, but he started it alongside Fitzpatrick and Hatton in the betting. In the four events he's played since, he leads Fitzpatrick and is with Hatton. At a course he surely prefers to Wentworth, where admittedly both outperformed him, he looks a fair bit overpriced.
Surely the most improved player of on this side of the Atlantic, he could follow the lead of Harris English, who filled the same category in the USA and started the new year with a bang. The trouble is, this is a big-money, Rolex Series event, and all logic would suggest that maidens are going to find it hard to fend off a likely high-class group of pursuers.
This hugely talented Spaniard ended in excellent form, with three top finishes across his final five starts. The two exceptions were both missed cuts, but the first of those came on his return following Covid, and the second just days after he admittedly blew an excellent chance to land us a nice-priced winner when sixth at Leopard Creek. Most recently, he was part of that leaderboard logjam in the DP World Tour Championship and finished in a share of 10th, which adds to third place in the Dubai Desert Classic plus a win in the Challenge Tour Grand Final to give him an excellent record in the Middle East - it's no wonder he's chosen to base himself in Dubai, for all he spent Christmas in Spain.
Here in Abu Dhabi, Arnaus was a fine 22nd on debut as a rookie and then sat seventh at halfway last January, before a disappointing weekend. On both occasions he led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee, prodigious driving being his biggest asset.
However since then he's really improved his approach play 25th last year, 90th in and that could prove key to sticking around this time. Arnaus defied especially poor conditions to place in the Dubai Desert Classic so the forecast breeze isn't too much of a concern and if he can take advantage of the par-fives, which hasn't always been a given, he can muscle his way in. I'm absolutely convinced that by the end of this year, he has the ability to have established himself as one of the very best players on the circuit.
Schwab and Detry are similarly talented but the latter was quiet towards the end of the season and Schwab was particularly disappointing in the mix in South Africa. As allowed by our odds comparison, our analysis of the best betting sites and bookmakers offers , or our various analyses of sports news, many pillars are at your disposal to increase your winnings in sports betting. To go faster, our team condenses you all in each of its predictions.
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