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The PollyVote project , widely published in academic journals, goes a step further, combining information contained in betting markets with forecasting models, experts and beyond. This year it forecast a Biden victory by electoral votes to Ten days on from the close of voting and it seems on current trends that Biden will end up with votes in the electoral college to for Trump.
This assumes that Georgia, which has yet to be called by the networks, will go as most independent observers expect: for Biden. If this does happen, the betting spreads will be almost spot on. In fact, both these numbers are within the spreads offered on election day. If Georgia ends up after a recount in the Trump column the betting markets will still have performed well — certainly compared to the forecasting models.
Read more: Biden or Trump? Betting markets are more cautious than polls in predicting the US election. What this tells us is that the betting and prediction markets, which respond to the weight of money traded on each candidate, and are informed by considerable professional insight, have this year recovered a reputation dating back to at least , and in the case of the Papal betting markets as far back as So what are they telling us now?
How can this be so, given that the presidential inauguration date for the next term of office is January 20, ? At that point, the loser of the election ceases to be in office. Could it be that Biden is inaugurated but Trump barricades himself inside the Oval Office for five weeks?
More realistically, the traders are factoring in the small possibility of Trump clinging on for a second term. The Betfair markets offer an insight into this. The current president still has a 7. This, and presumably all other avenues to seize or retain power, are factored into this probability. In conclusion, is it likely, based on the current evidence in the betting markets, that Trump will prevail over all established custom and evidence?
Not at all. Such situations are a nightmare for risk managers. To deal with this, markets betting on political outcomes have existed for more than a century. According to the University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers, who has researched the history of prediction markets, there are records of election betting in Wall Street going back to There is real money at stake with one study estimating that average betting turnover per US presidential election is equivalent to over 50 per cent of the campaign spend.
A range of markets offer the chance to predict the US election market. The simplest way to run a political market is to structure a futures contract that pays cents on the dollar if your predicted outcome happens, and zero if it does not. So, for example, if a Clinton-for-president contract is trading for 80 cents, that means the market puts an 80 per cent probability on her being elected.
If you think this is too high, you can sell it short, and bet that her perceived chances will fall, or buy a Donald Trump future, which in a well-run market will be trading at 20 cents. The success of prediction markets, pre-Brexit, was extraordinary. Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets, the longest established online market, run by the University of Iowa, correctly called the winner of the electoral college vote correctly in all 50 states in the very close election between George W Bush and John Kerry.
Over history, according to Mr Wolfers, prediction markets perform better than the Gallup poll, which is much more expensive to compile. Their average error on presidential elections is 1. However, virtually every marketplace that offered a contract on the Brexit referendum saw Remain as the likely victor.
None put the chance at zero, so they were not technically wrong, but the weight of expectation was plainly wrong. What are the problems? One is that prediction markets are prone to the biases of their participants, if they are pervasive. Unconscious racism is one example.
Mr Wolfers tested the theory that sports prediction markets persistently underestimate the chances of baseball teams with more African-American players , and found that their contracts did indeed tend to be cheap. Betters on predominantly African-American teams tended to make bigger profits, showing that the market as a whole had underestimated their chances. This might help explain the Brexit debacle.
UK financial markets are concentrated in London, where sentiment towards the EU was very different from much of the rest of the country. Many Londoners thought it obvious that the rest of the country would come around to staying in the EU. His Good Judgment project, a market which allows for predictions and also offers participants the chance to argue with each other online, and had been very successful, had put the chances of Brexit at 25 per cent.
Another problem with prediction markets is that they are not a voting machine, they are a weighing machine — unlike a vote in a democracy, your bet is worth more if you put more money behind it. That can create weaknesses. In the days before the UK referendum, far more money was bet on Remain than Leave, but more, smaller bets were placed on Leave. This may have been deliberate manipulation, or, as more likely, reflected the fact that those who thought Remain would win had more money.
Away from prediction markets, for retail investors the cheapest hedge may be to bet on market outcomes that would follow a political event using spread betting. This is a form of derivative market that also has strong similarities to a conventional bookmaker.
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For the first time in the past few hours, votes have started trickling in and the betting market is reacting as the margins close in both Pennsylvania and Georgia. Thursday morning continues to be an uneventful one, with very little movement in terms of presidential election odds. With very little new voting data rolling in so far, the odds to win the Presidency remain heavily in favor of Joe Biden:. This is a 4. Here are his latest odds to win a second term, according to Betfair in Europe:.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, the race is over. If he survives there but loses the other two states, the race is over. This is another all-time high for Biden, as securing Georgia would open the map even more for him. The former VP would need to win just one other state to take the White House.
The latest odds to win the Presidential race continue to move ever-so-slightly toward Joe Biden, as the final votes in key swing states like Pennsylvania , Arizona , Georgia and Nevada get tabulated. Biden is a significant favorite in both Pennsylvania and Arizona. Winning Pennsylvania would get Biden above the magic number of Electoral College votes.
Betfair made a small move in the p. Still, Biden is a massive favorite as he closes the gaps in Pennsylvania and Georgia especially. Joe Biden emerged with his best odds of the election around p. ET and has held steady since:. The election appears to be getting away from President Donald Trump, according to the latest betting odds from Betfair in Europe:.
If one of those fails to come through, a victory in either Pennsylvania or Georgia would put Biden over the top. At a. Between 1 and 2 p. ET, Donald Trump appeared to be mounting a comeback on the oddsboard, but that has since evaporated — Trump now has his worst odds of this election cycle while Joe Biden has his best:.
CNN is now projecting Biden to win Michigan. After Donald Trump tightened the gap between he and Joe Biden on the oddsboard between 1 and 2 p. ET — improving his implied probability from After a morning and early afternoon that was all Biden, odds movement suggests that Trump could be mounting a comeback.
While Biden is still the betting favorite, Trump has tightened the gap with his implied probability improving from Once again it has been an uneventful hour regarding betting odds, with numbers barely budging since our last update:. Expect more of the same until crucial swing states begin updating voting numbers throughout the day. Presidential odds have remained quiet for the past two hours, with Joe Biden now against Donald Trump.
ET Wednesday. Joe Biden now has the lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin , with some votes still to be counted in both states. The news is helping boost his odds at the Betfair Exchange in Europe:. This overall shift in the race is the result of Michigan and Wisconsin swinging in a significant way toward the former Vice President. Biden would be guaranteed to win the Electoral College if he wins four of the six aforementioned states.
As votes continue to roll in, the betting market has become more and more bullish on Biden on Wednesday morning. At , Biden now has a The tides appear to be turning again in this race. Joe Biden started the day as a big favorite before plummeting to as low as a Why the big shift from just eight hours ago? Biden has seen some positive movement in both Wisconsin and Michigan as more votes have been tabulated.
Lastly, a few different news organizations have called Arizona for the former VP. In short, Biden appears to have a few paths to victory as more votes get tabulates, which helps explains why his odds. This is a ET, when he bottomed out at a How quickly can things change in this race? President Donald Trump just got done giving a speech in which he tried to declare victory and said he would try to go to the U.
Supreme Court to stop counting votes in specific states from being counted. Note: Legal experts agree Trump would have no grounds to do this. These are virtually identical to what the odds were at 2 a. This is a big jump for Trump from where he was at a. ET The reason for the change? Trump is now a pretty significant favorite to win four key states at Betfair: Georgia , Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump is a big betting favorite to win Georgia , despite some predictive models thinking that is still a very tight race.
Same with Pennsylvania. Overall, though, the election odds have stabilized over the past hour. With states like Pennsylvania not expected to have votes counted until as late as Friday, the election is far from over. After heavy movement in the odds throughout Election Day — most notably with Trump emerging with his highest odds yet ET on Tuesday — the betting market now seems to reflect the tightness of the race at this point:.
Betfair has Biden is now favored in Michigan , Nevada and Wisconsin. That, plus Biden looking good in Arizona , has resulted in the overall odds for the race continuing to move in his direction after bottoming out at The betting market may have overreacted to what appears will be a convincing Trump victory in the state of Florida. Betting odds are starting to shift back to former Vice President Joe Biden, though he far from the favorite he was earlier on Election Day.
ET today. ET, but he still has a lot way to go to climb back to his Election Day high of Trump hit his peak of ET, with Biden since gaining some ground on the oddsboard with a 4. After hitting a high of odds with a The votes keep coming in and the odds keep swinging toward President Donald Trump.
The current odds:. Less than an hour after emerging as the odds-on favorite to win the election for the first time since May, President Donald Trump has padded his lead over Joe Biden in the betting market:. Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the election for the first time since May 5, according to the betting odds at Betfair. Here are the current odds for each candidate, according to European sportsbook Betfair:. One potential reason for the shift?
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